Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 21.487666 23.484926 25.710354 28.400208 31.600161 35.334188 40.097082
2025-01-05 18.528230 21.127681 24.251525 28.376300 33.836516 41.074796 51.910457
2025-01-12 16.318683 19.148141 22.731487 27.781155 35.054475 45.818177 64.642647
2025-01-19 15.362797 18.514787 22.711888 29.026057 38.980928 55.733125 91.779781
2025-01-26 14.167162 17.375821 21.794100 28.750988 40.475530 62.347258 119.379658
2025-02-02 13.313494 16.582325 21.220133 28.835913 42.524665 70.951316 164.524779
2025-02-09 12.653834 15.977824 20.822596 29.094236 44.920620 81.699524 244.396464
2025-02-16 12.053297 15.392823 20.371217 29.160533 46.946986 93.047253 386.469040
2025-02-23 11.447710 14.744651 19.744551 28.804683 47.986182 102.629875 631.336473
2025-03-02 10.994919 14.286637 19.368499 28.835196 49.896088 116.976834 1495.049137
2025-03-09 10.546068 13.800109 18.896519 28.607999 51.140338 130.615099 7519.928758
2025-03-16 10.135219 13.343911 18.432975 28.328088 52.186729 145.226011 NaN
2025-03-23 9.757510 12.922842 18.004988 28.085340 53.357448 163.339608 NaN
2025-03-30 9.424536 12.553280 17.636730 27.919230 54.736337 186.405301 NaN
2025-04-06 9.046941 12.092270 17.076290 27.280685 54.567781 200.017941 NaN
2025-04-13 8.967192 12.104027 17.345210 28.459912 60.497117 286.607244 NaN
2025-04-20 8.689040 11.776562 16.980259 28.182024 61.561555 333.987273 NaN
2025-04-27 8.478572 11.549584 16.781608 28.259014 63.964216 425.016302 NaN
2025-05-04 8.304172 11.373158 16.662549 28.506417 67.176385 589.141323 NaN
2025-05-11 8.118749 11.168931 16.476756 28.569493 69.750270 830.084154 NaN
2025-05-18 7.897681 10.894786 16.141463 28.225234 70.503149 1069.540179 NaN
2025-05-25 7.732515 10.708668 15.963066 28.254540 73.003037 1762.424815 NaN
2025-06-01 7.549737 10.484934 15.698865 28.034894 74.299403 2940.120020 NaN